Missouri River Projections Lowered

Monday's projections for Missouri River levels have been lowered, according to an email from the City of Chesterfield's email river update service. 

The river is now expected to crest Friday in St. Charles at 27.6 feet, which is about 2 1/2 feet lower than originally thought. St. Charles is about a half-day downstream from Chesterfield. At that height, the river is not expected to overtop the agricultural levee located about 2,000 feet north of the Monarch-Chesterfield Levee. The river has to reach about 33 feet in St. Charles to overtop the agricultural levee.

In Hermann, MO, which is about one day upstream from Chesterfield, the river is expected to crest on Thursday at 25.6 feet. That's down from the 28.6 feet that was predicted Monday.

"River predictions are a mix of both art and science," the email said, noting that there haven't been any specific reasons to cause the decreased projections. River projections aren't meant to be precise. "They are intended to provide as much advance warning as possible and to provide conservative information for river users and adjacent land owners. Such predictions are typically conservative, and we need to remain cognizant of the precision. Don't confuse accuracy with precision. Don't over react or under react," the email states.

With water levels expected to rise, officials from the City of Chesterfield and the Monarch-Chesterfield Levee District have been closely monitoring upstream Missouri River conditions for weeks. There is some significant flooding on the upper Missouri River, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has begun a controlled release of some of the water from the Gavins Point Dam, which is on the border of Nebraska and South Dakota. Last week, the discharge from the dam was increased to 160,000 cubic feet per second, up from a normal output of about 130,000 cubic feet per second. Chesterfield Public Works Director Mike Geisel has said before that the extra discharge isn't a significant amount.

If necessary, the city will initiate the , but at this point no watch, warnings or advisories are called for.